Congress Captures Nilambur; AAP Triumphs in Visavadar

By Anirban Basu, Senior Political Analyst at The Indian Express (Profile: https://indianexpress.com/profile/anirban-basu)
June 23, 2025 • Updated 7:30 PM IST

Key Takeaways

• Nilambur (Kerala): Congress’s Aryadan Shoukath unseats the CPI(M) with an 11,077-vote margin, marking the first defeat of the Left Democratic Front in this term timesofindia.indiatimes.comndtv.com.
• Visavadar (Gujarat): AAP’s Gopal Italia secures victory over BJP’s Kirti Patel by over 17,000 votes, bolstering AAP’s presence ahead of the 2026 state polls m.economictimes.com.
• Political Repercussions: Gujarat Congress president Shaktisinh Gohil resigns; AAP national convenor Arvind Kejriwal hails a “public rebuke” of established parties economictimes.indiatimes.commoneycontrol.com.

Nilambur Bypoll: A Historic Upset

In Kerala’s Nilambur constituency, Congress candidate Aryadan Shoukath clinched victory with 52,431 votes, defeating CPI(M)’s M. Swaraj who polled 41,354—an 11,077-vote gap timesofindia.indiatimes.com. This marks the first time in the current LDF government’s tenure that an incumbent seat has fallen to the Opposition, signaling potential voter fatigue with the ruling coalition.

“This result reflects growing disenchantment with LDF’s policies on local agrarian distress and youth employment,” noted Dr. Pradeep Joshua, Professor of Political Science at the University of Delhi (Profile: https://du.ac.in/faculty/pradeep-joshua).

What Changed Since 2019?

• Local Issues: Tea plantation workers and small-scale rubber farmers cited unfulfilled wage assurances and input subsidies.
• Candidate Factor: Aryadan Shoukath leveraged his family’s entrenched political goodwill and intensive door-to-door outreach.

Visavadar Bypoll: AAP Breakthrough in Gujarat

In Gujarat’s Visavadar seat, Gopal Italia of the Aam Aadmi Party accumulated 62,345 votes, overcoming BJP’s Kirti Patel who secured 45,088—a margin of 17,257 votes m.economictimes.com. The outcome underscores AAP’s expanding footprint beyond its Delhi and Punjab strongholds.

“The people of Visavadar have sent a clear message: traditional vote-banks are shifting,” said Arvind Kejriwal in a post on X, calling it “a public rebuke of BJP and Congress alike” moneycontrol.com.

Gujarat Congress Leadership Shake-up

Following the defeat in Visavadar (and Kadi), Gujarat Congress president Shaktisinh Gohil tendered his resignation, stating, “I must take responsibility for these setbacks and pave the way for organizational renewal” economictimes.indiatimes.com.

Expert Analysis: Reading the Political Tea Leaves

1. Voter Volatility: Both Kerala and Gujarat outcomes highlight an electorate increasingly driven by hyper-local issues rather than party loyalty.
2. AAP’s Growth Trajectory: With wins in Visavadar and Ludhiana West, AAP now controls four assembly segments outside Delhi, setting up a potential three-state strategy.
3. Congress Resurgence?: The Nilambur victory offers a morale boost to the UDF alliance in Kerala, though translating bypoll success into general-election gains remains challenging.

What Happens Next?

• Kerala Assembly: Watch for intensified campaigning in the forthcoming Thrissur and Kollam by-elections, where the UDF will aim to capitalize on momentum.
• Gujarat Road to 2026: AAP will likely target urban centers and farming belt constituencies; BJP must shore up grassroots cadres to prevent further erosion.

Fact-Check

Daily Digest

• Punjab’s Ludhiana West: AAP retains seat (Sanjeev Arora).
• West Bengal’s Kaliganj: TMC’s Alifa Ahmed leads with 50,049-vote margin.
  (See ongoing live updates at www.eci.gov.in)