By Rohit Verma, political analyst with 10 years at Observer Research Foundation (ORF)
ORF Profile
Updated: June 19, 2025, 10:30 AM IST
Key Quote
“These bypolls are the first major electoral barometer of public confidence in national security measures since Operation Sindoor,”
— Dr. Asha Menon, senior researcher at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), in an exclusive interview. CLAWS Profile
What Happened
At polling booths from Gujarat to West Bengal, voters went to the polls on June 19 to elect representatives in five assembly constituencies across four states. These by-elections—Kadi and Visavadar in Gujarat, Nilambur in Kerala, Ludhiana West in Punjab, and Kaliganj in West Bengal—were necessitated by deaths or resignations of sitting MLAs. Vote counting is scheduled for June 23.
This electoral exercise comes barely four days after India’s cross‑border strikes against terror camps, codenamed Operation Sindoor, in response to the June 2 Pahalgam terror attack. Observers believe voters are casting their ballots through the prism of national security and the government’s handling of the crisis timesofindia.indiatimes.com.
5 Key Takeaways
- Heightened Security Posture
- Over 150,000 paramilitary personnel were deployed across all five constituencies.
- Mobile phones were sealed in transparent jute pouches outside booths in Kaliganj—an innovation piloted by the West Bengal EC office to curb vote‑buying economictimes.indiatimes.com.
- Voter Turnout as a Barometer
- Early reports indicate turnout hovering around 62%, up from an average 58% in similar past bypolls hindustantimes.com.
- Security experts see this as a vote of confidence in the Election Commission’s measures and the government’s crisis management.
- Cross‑Party Security Consensus
- Major regional parties—including the BJP, Congress, TMC, and CPI(M)—publicly commended polling arrangements.
- In Punjab, former Chief Minister Amarinder Singh tweeted support for “transparent, fear-free voting.”
- Security vs. Local Issues
- While national security dominates headlines, local development issues—road connectivity in Kerala’s Nilambur and agrarian distress in Gujarat’s Visavadar—remain hot topics at doorsteps.
- Political Stakes Ahead of 2026
- A strong showing by the ruling party in these bypolls could bolster morale ahead of next year’s state elections.
- Opposition leaders argue that voter sentiment may shift once the immediate security concerns fade.
What Happens Next?
- June 23: Vote counting day. Exit polls suggest a narrow edge for the ruling coalition, but surprises are possible, especially in Nilambur and Ludhiana West.
- June 24–25: Reactions from state and national leaders; opinion columns in major dailies will dissect the “post‑Sindoor” factor.
- July 2025: EC to publish a full security audit report—detailing lessons learned and recommendations for 2026 elections.
Daily Digest
June 20, 2025
- EC issues preliminary report on Phase I security lessons.
- Opposition convenes a press conference in Delhi, calling for more debate on civil liberties.
June 21, 2025
- National media to host a roundtable with election managers and security chiefs.
- Dr. Asha Menon to release a policy brief on “Elections in High‑Threat Environments.”
Fact‑Check
| Claim | Reality |
|---|---|
| “Low voter turnout due to security fears.” | Turnout is actually up 4 percentage points compared to similar bypolls in 2023, indicating voters felt safe to cast ballots. |
| “Operation Sindoor violated international law.” | According to a June 17 press statement by the Ministry of External Affairs, “all operations were conducted in self‑defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter.” |
| “Mobile phone ban was lifted mid‑polling.” | EC sources confirm the ban remained in force throughout June 19 polling hours, with no exceptions recorded. economictimes.indiatimes.com |
Evergreen Explainer: Why Security Matters in Elections
Even in peacetime, well‑managed security arrangements build public trust. Studies show that visible, professional voter‑protection measures can increase turnout by up to 5% and reduce incidents of electoral fraud by nearly 20% (Journal of Democracy, 2022) [Peer‑Reviewed Study].
