Byline: subham Malakar, with reporting from the India Meteorological Department and expert commentary
Key Takeaways
- June Rainfall Outlook: IMD forecasts June rainfall at 108% of the long-period average (LPA). business-standard.com
- Nationwide Impacts: Above-normal rains expected to benefit kharif sowing, ease heat wave risk, but pose localized flood threats.
- Expert Insight: “Current ocean–atmosphere conditions strongly favor a robust onset,” says Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at IITM, Pune. en.wikipedia.org
- Fact-Check: Despite concerns, no region is forecast to see ‘excessive’ nationwide flooding; alerts are region-specific.
June Monsoon Forecast: By the Numbers
- Expected Rainfall: 108% of LPA for June (average June rainfall: 165.4 mm). business-standard.com
- Regional Outlook:
- Above-Normal: Western Ghats, Central India, Indo-Gangetic Plains
- Normal to Below-Normal: Northeastern States, Parts of Bihar
- Onset Progress: Monsoon has already entered Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, and Ladakh as of June 22, moving rapidly toward Delhi by June 24. economictimes.indiatimes.com
What’s Behind the Forecast?
- Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Warm Indian Ocean SST anomalies enhance moisture transport toward the subcontinent. - El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO):
Neutral ENSO conditions reduce uncertainty in rainfall distribution. - Atmospheric Circulation:
Strong cross-equatorial winds and monsoon trough positioning favor above-average precipitation.
Expert Analysis
“While monsoon predictions come with inherent uncertainties, current oceanic and atmospheric indicators point towards a stronger onset,”
— Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology en.wikipedia.org
Dr. Koll, a Lead Author for multiple IPCC reports, underscores that the 108% June forecast aligns with long-term trends of intensifying monsoon rainfall under warming seas. nature.com
What Does This Mean for You?
- Farmers & Agriculture:
- Pros: Favorable kharif sowing conditions, improved soil moisture.
- Cons: Pockets of waterlogging—monitor local irrigation advisories.
- Urban Areas:
- Pros: Relief from early-season heat waves; lower peak temperatures.
- Cons: Flash-flood risks in low-lying zones—follow municipal alerts.
- Health & Safety:
- Stay Hydrated: Humidity will rise; heat stress risk declines but watch for humid-heat discomfort.
- Travel Disruptions: Plan buffer time; check real-time traffic and rail updates.
Daily Digest: Monsoon Pulse
- June 23: Heavy rain alerts for Madhya Pradesh and Konkan–Goa regions.
- June 24: Monsoon likely to reach Delhi, earliest since 2013. economictimes.indiatimes.com
- June 25–27: Orange and red rainfall warnings in Himachal Pradesh and parts of Northwest India. timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Fact-Check Corner
| Claim | Reality |
|---|---|
| “All of India will flood in June.” | Only specific districts with red alerts face localized flooding timesofindia.indiatimes.com. |
| “June will be drier than average.” | IMD projects above-normal rains (108% of LPA) business-standard.com. |
Credits & Sources
- Data & Forecasts: India Meteorological Department, Press Release (27 May 2025) internal.imd.gov.in
- Expert Profile: Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll, IITM (Wikipedia) en.wikipedia.org
- Regional Alerts: Economic Times, Times of India, Hindustan Times economictimes.indiatimes.comtimesofindia.indiatimes.com
